Michael Kugelman has this in the The Diplomat about the possibilities in the aftermath of the Uri attack by the Pakistanis. He starts off with reference to the “jingoistic” mood prevalent in India and refers to a viral video on social media which “threatens” to punish and obliterate Pakistan for its mis – deeds. Well, Mr Kugelman, it indeed encapsulates the mood in India but let me tell you one thing, it is anything but violent. Violence is what the Pakistanis are perpetrating in Kashmir. If India reacts, then it will come down like a tonne of bricks on Pakistan.
Other than the usual, nuclear argument which both nations posses, Kugelman points to the fact that India has limited capabilities to wage one (war). Research by South Asia security analysts George Perkovich and Toby Dalton, drawing on interviews with Indian military officials, concludes that the “surface attraction” of limited airstrikes is “offset significantly, if not equally, by risks and inadequacies.” Additionally, it contends that “there is vast room for improvement” in intelligence collection capacities. It also asserts that India’s capabilities to stage joint air and land operations are wanting. “Even at the level of exercises,” Perkovich and Dalton write, “the Indian Army and Air Force have not inspired each other’s confidence in their capacity to conduct effective combined operations in realistic warfare conditions.” In effect, India’s military has more than sufficient numbers—only the militaries of the United States and China have more than its 1.3 million active personnel—but less than sufficient capacity.
Another reason he cites is that India lacks sufficient evidence to tie Pakistan to the attack.
He ends with the predictable and stale conclusion of not doing anything as both overt (lack of capability) and covert (fraught with risks) warefare are not in the realm of possibility.
I am sure the Indian bureaucracy and advisors concur with Mr Kugelman. We have been hearing the predictable ‘”diplomatic isolation'” (whatever that means?) of Pakistan. I mean these mandarins should take lessons from the great Chanakya and throw away their Foreign policy 101 manual or whatever crap they read. I mean, is it really possible to “diplomatically isolate” Pakistan??? Duh!! Arent there supposed to be no permanent friends nor enemies and only permanent national interest in Foreign Policy? Look at the Russians. They are in the midst of a joint military exercise with Pakistan of all nations. I mean Russia has crossed the Lakshman Rekha. Arent the Russians driven by national interest? I mean they getting ever close to China. This drill with Pakistani forces was a natural by – product.
India should wake up. National interest is paramount.