Mumbai Votes – 2014 Lok Sabha elections

Constituency Name Area Sitting MP  Votes won SS (or BJP) +MNS Votes 2009 Margin of victory Party
             
Mumbai North  Dahisar – Malad (W) Sanjay Nirupam 2,55,157 396880 5779 Congress
Mumbai North – West Goregaon – Andheri Gurudas Kamath 2,53,899 339369 38415 Congress
Mumbai North – East Mankhurd – Ghatkopar Sanjay Patil 2,13,505 405720 2933 NCP
Mumbai North Central Vile Parle – Bandra Priya Dutt 3,19,352 277352 174555 Congress
Mumbai South Central Chembur – Sion Eknath Gaikwad 2,57,165 290251 75641 Congress
Mumbai South  Worli – Colaba Milind Deora 2,72,411 305847 112682 Congress

With India’s first past the post system of parliamentary democracy, one just needs to ensure one secures one more vote than the second placed candidate. One can get elected by even 25% vote share.  Last time round in Mumbai in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, with the sole exception of Mumbai North Central from where Priya Dutt won comfortably, the other Mumbai constituencies witnessed the mayhem wrought by the MNS (a newbie political party back 2009). With both SS & MNS targeting pretty much the same vote bank, the votes got vertically split benefitting the Congress in a 3 cornered fight.

The fifth column shows the combined votes gained by the SS+MNS. With the exception of Mumbai North Central, all other constituencies saw the SS+MNS votes outnumbering the Congress votes won, hurting the SS+BJP alliance badly.

This time round the MNS has decided to not to field candidates against the BJP in 3 constituencies, i.e. Mumbai North, Mumbai North East and Mumbai North Central. This, they say, has been done obstensibly to help the NDA form the government at the centre and help Mr Modi to be the next PM. Not sure how will it help as out of these 3 constituencies, there is Mumbai North Central from where Priya Dutt seems comfortably placed from the above statistic. Out of the remaining 2, there is Mumbai North – East constituency from where AAP’s Medha Patkar, who being a grassroots activist might just pip the others. Mumbai North, thus is the only constituency from where the SS+BJP would win comfortably. In the remaining 3 seats, Milind Deora too seems to be in the lead. In the other constituencies, the vote – split phenomenon might just continue unless the x – factor in the form of the ‘Modi wave’ does the trick. 

Huge double anti – incumbency for the ruling dispensation, the x – factor Modi wave, vertical – split of votes with the MNS, tactical voting would all be at play. It ensures a heady cocktail in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai. Now unless the voter turnout is high in the 70% region, will it negate some of the negative dynamics at play. With the turnout being at an abysmal 41% last time round and just around 36% at 3 pm, 70% mark seems a tall order. It would indeed be a shame if the voting turnout doesnt increase even with such high awareness. The figure might just cross 50% but it is NOT enough to drive out the incumbents.

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