Assembly Elections – Possible beginning of the lotus bloom

5 Indian states chose their legislators in the past few weeks, results of which are due this Sunday , i.e 8th December, 2013, about 5 months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. All these elections saw record voter turnout, which effectively means only one thing, a decisive mandate, either pro or anti incumbency. Unfortunately, Congress seemingly would be left without a chair on both counts when the music stops playing. <Exit polls (sample size not known) predict BJP romping home in 2 / 5 states, close to winning in 2 / 5 states and not in the reckoning in Mizoram, i.e. Possibly 4 / 5 in total or all 4 major states.

MP and Chattisgarh have witnessed strong growth rates in their economies as can be seen here MP has witnessed close to 9% SGDP growth whereas Chattisgarh witnessed close to 8% SGDP growth, which is 2 ppt above national average.

MidnightBreakfast feels that there is a very important correlation between economic growth and election victories. Along with strong GDP growth, both these BJP ruled states ran very successful PDS programmes especially the mineral rich state of Chattisgarh. So much so, Raman Singh came to be known as 'Chawal wale Baba'.

MP too has a very effective PDS scheme, providing subsidised grains to the poor, which along with a host of other schemes. Both, low profile chief ministers, if they win, would join Narendra Modi for winning record terms as CM.

Delhi is another story with a 3 – way fight between BJP, Congress and AAP. Incumbent Sheila Dixit stormed to power back in the latter part of 1990's with onion price rise bringing Sushma Swaraj led government to its knees. Apparently, a combined centre – state anti incumbency and the AAP curiousity would oust Dixit. Its between BJP & AAP.

Rajasthan was a laboratory to various centre – state government experiments. Among other freebies, free medicines was a prominent one. With Congress loss more or less certain, it would be a bdoy blow to the Congress. Freebie politics needs a hard look. Apparently, focusing on jobs, economic growth pays richer dividends.


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